It was another sell-off week last, with most Indices around the globe, including the US’s S&P 500 completing its 4th week of losses, something that was last seen in August of 2019. Commodities were under pressure, as they were reacting to a stronger US Dollar.
We are however seeing some relief so far this week, which could mean the correction is over. We are still expecting some volatility ahead though, as we head for the crucial November 3rd US Presidential elections. With the 1st Presidential debate pencilled for tonight, market participants will be closely watching it for clues as to what might happen come November 3rd.
1. S&P 500
We had a short-term bearish outlook on this market last week, but things are looking rather differently as we head into the week. Notwithstanding the increased volatility that comes with an election, the below daily chart says “3,650”.
Though we saw a US dollar rally last week, the bearish dollar structure on the EURUSD pair is still intact, and our long-term view on it hasn’t changed. Our ‘Long’ target is still 1.3000. We may get a bearish engulfing candle for the month of September though, so a pullback is possible, especially on the lower timeframes.
Inverse Head and Shoulder broke to the upside, came for a retest, and the breakout level is holding as support so far. We have a long target of 0.8 on this pair.
With the risk of a messy Brexit divorce, we find it rather strange that the pound is rallying. We were bearish the pound last week, but 200 day moving average seem to have given this market another ‘fighting’ chance, as it capped further losses last week. The currency pair seem to be developing a bullish double bottom on the daily timeframe. The critical level to watch here is the 1.300 price area, a break of which might take us back above 1.32.
This pair is evident of how at ‘Apex Trading’ we are always ready to change our views in response to price action. We were previously ‘short’ in a trade that was nicely in the money. The market would however reverse to take us out at break-even. We now seeing a double bottom technical chart formation on the verge of breaking out. Should that be confirmed, we are eyeing a ‘Long’ trade.
The above analysis and charts are based on Tuesday morning’s prices (29 September). We must also emphasis that these trade ideas are not exhaustive, and they are only our initial thoughts as we head into the week. You can therefore expect that some levels may be adjusted, to align with overall market sentiment. And also, new opportunities may arise during the week, which we may take advantage of.
To get our full thoughts and views on how we are trading this market, contact using email address firstname.lastname@example.org; or phone number 0113842951.
Until next time, let’s keep it Profitable as we climb to the Apex!
Portfolio Manager: Apex Trading